FIDELity

As the world watches for signs of life from an island 90 miles south of Florida, we see George Bush once again poised to have a 9/11-reading-to-kids moment. Fidel Castro, international badass/menance depending on who you are and ruler of Cuba since his revolution overthrew the government in 1959, has transfered power to his brother-in-arms Raul for the first time since taking office back when Eisenhower was still President. The anti-Castro Cubans are taking to the streets in Miami and praying for his death. The pro-Castro Cubans are taking to the streets in Havana and praying for his survival. Our current President, embrolied in a quagmire in Iraq and a bonafide international crisis in Lebanon, is likely praying for the "bad man to stop" as he watches the world fall into a freefall on his watch.

Whether Castro is actually ill (he is supposedly undergoing intestinal surgery) or not remains an important question. Some of his critics in Miami wonder whether this is simply a test of his power on the island in order to prevent for his death. For now, Castro has said that he would like his brother Raul to succeed him to the Presidency of Cuba. However, many loyalists question whether Raul has the aura and magnestism of his brother that keeps the socialist society together amidst calls for democracy and free markets.

So far, Cuba remains stable. No mass revolution has started as Fidel lies in a hospital bed. However, there are those in Miami who wish to invade Cuba "right away" once it is confirmed that Fidel is dead in order to not let Raul assume power. George Bush has said, obviously, that he would like to see Democracy in Cuba ASAP.

But even if Castro is not dead, he will be 80 on August 13th and Raul is not far behind him in age. The end of the Castro presidency is, whether everyone likes it or not, going to end rather soon. The prospect of this death presents challenges to two very different men: Fidel Castro and George W. Bush.

For Castro, understanding his mortality presents a challenge to keep his nation together after his death. Yasser Arafat, who died in 2004 and, despite being a internationally recognized leader, was not the glue that kept the society tied together. Castro, however, is the Cuban glue. In Jon Lee Anderson's most recent article in the New Yorker, he tells a story of a time in the mid-90s when Havana erupted in riots and Castro simply came down to the scene of the riots, calmed the crowds, and restored order simply with his presence. Although not all Cubans like Castro, they still respect him the his Revolution. His incredible charisma, though diminished through age, and vision compels the Cuban people to go along with his socialism that they might not go along with had it not been him telling them what to do. And Castro gets this. And Castro fears this. If he cannot find someone to take over his ongoing "Revolution," Castro and his Cuban socialism will be dead.

For Bush, understanding the complexity of Castro's death is ever-so-important. Although most Americans remember how we met the brink of war in the Castro-Kennedy duel of 1962, most people do not still feel as if Castro is the number on enemy of our country (Osama bin Laden far outdid anything Castro ever did on 9/11 in terms of making enemies with the US). Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI), who will most likely run for President in 2008, has said that if elected he would lift the embargo on Cuba. Can you imagine Jimmy Carter campaigning on that agenda in 1976? He would be killed! Nevertheless, Bush is not known to be a softy when it comes to liberty and extending it to wherever he sees fit. Cuba is obviously one place he sees fit. So if Castro dies, Bush will find himself in yet another AWFUL situation that will pit him with the anti-Castro Miami Cubans who want to see Fidel out and democracy in. But will the Cuban people in Havana go for this? Will the US need to send in troops and overthrow Raul Castro?

In the course of the next few days, both sides (Washington and Havana) will be playing out plenty of scenarios. Raul has said the army is ready to meet an attack, whether it came from inside Cuba or out. Hugo Chavez, the President of Venezuela and hardcore Castro wannabe, has said that he supports Fidel and may be inclined to enter such a conflict in the interest of preserving Latin American leftism.

Is this Fidel's last dance? Stay tuned....